METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Aibek Merekeyev; Gulnara  Iskaliyeva; Arailym Gaipova; Alima Amangeldi; Madіna Sagat; Nurmakhambet Sуdуk

doi:10.37884/2-2025/47

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of modern research methods for high-mountain glacial lakes in Central Asia under global warming conditions. Special attention is given to moraine lakes, which form due to glacier retreat and pose a significant hazard because of potential outburst events and associated debris flows. Key trends in glacial lake changes, their dynamic behavior, formation mechanisms, and current monitoring and risk assessment strategies are thoroughly examined.

Particular focus is placed on the use of remote sensing data (Landsat, Sentinel, Terra), which, in combination with geographic information systems (GIS), enables real-time monitoring of lake conditions, spatial and temporal dynamics, and risk assessment. The article also discusses approaches to estimating lake water volume using spectral indices (MNDWI, NDVI) and digital elevation models (DEMs).

The study summarizes research experience across major mountain systems, including the Himalayas, Pamirs, and Tien Shan. The advantages of satellite-based monitoring – such as efficiency and the ability to survey inaccessible regions – are highlighted alongside its limitations, including spatial resolution constraints, seasonal variability, and the need for ground-truth validation. The importance of integrating remote sensing with field-based observations for more accurate outburst risk assessment is emphasized.

The article presents specific case studies, including an inventory of 143 glacial lakes in the Shilik River basin and an analysis of the 2015 Bezymyannoye Lake outburst, which caused significant damage. The results have important practical implications for the development of early warning systems and risk management in mountainous areas. Given rising temperatures and accelerated glacier melt, the need for enhanced and integrated monitoring of glacial lakes is becoming increasingly urgent.

Moraine lakes remote sensing GIS climate change breakthrough hazard debris flows Central Asia glaciers

01 Introduction

The full text of the article is available for download in PDF format on the right panel.

02 References

1. Medeu, A. R., Popov, N. V., Blagovechshenskiy, V. P., Askarova, M. A., Medeu, A. A., Ranova, S. U., Kamalbekova A., Bolch, T. Moraine-dammed glacial lakes and threat of glacial debris flows in South-East Kazakhstan //Earth-Science Reviews. – 2022. – Т. 229. – P. 103999.
2. Gantayat P., Sattar, A., Haritashya, U. K., Watson, C. S., & Kargel, J. S. (2024). Bayesian Approach to Estimate Proglacial Lake Volume (BE‐GLAV) //Earth and Space Science. – 2024. – Т. 11. – №. 6. – С. e2024EA003542.
3. Kaiheng Hu, Xiaopeng Zhang, Manish Raj Gouli, Shuang Liu, Yong Nie. Retrospective analysis and hazard assessment of Gega glacial lake in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis //Natural Hazards Research. – 2022. – Т. 2. – №. 4. – P. 331-342.
4. Wang X, Xiaoyu Guo, Chengde Yang, Qionghuan Liu, Junfeng Wei, Yong Zhang, Shi-yin Liu, Yanlin Zhang, Zong-li Jiang, Zhiguang Tang. Glacial lake inventory of high-mountain Asia in 1990 and 2018 derived from Landsat images //Earth System Science Data. – 2020. – Т. 12. – №. 3. – P. 2169-2182.
5. Dildabekova S. N., Isanova G. T., Raimbekova Z. T., Musina A. K., Kasenov M. K. Inventory of Glacier-Moraine Lakes in the Shilik River Basin and Analysis of Their Spatial Distribution //Journal of Geography & Environmental Management. – 2022. – Т. 65. – №. 2.
6. Lee Y. K., Hong S. H., Kim S. W. Monitoring of water level change in a dam from high-resolution sar data //Remote Sensing. – 2021. – Т. 13. – №. 18. – P. 3641
7. Akhilesh S. Nair, Nitish Kumar, J. Indu, B. Vivek. Monitoring lake levels from space: preliminary analysis with SWOT //Frontiers in Water. – 2021. – Т. 3. – P. 717852.
8. Shugar D., Burr A., Haritashya U.K., Kargel J., Watson C.S., Kennedy M.C., Bevington A.R., Betts R.A., Harrison S., Strattman K. Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990 //Nature climate change. – 2020. – Т. 10. – №. 10. – P. 939-945.
9. Amin М., Bano D., Hassan Sh., Goheer М., Khan А., Khan М., Hina S. Mapping and monitoring of glacier lake outburst floods using geospatial modelling approach for Darkut valley, Pakistan //Meteorological Applications. – 2020. – Т. 27. – №. 1. – P. e1877.
10. Jiawei Hou, Albert I.J.M. Van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo, Pablo R. Larraondo. GloLakes: a database of global lake water storage dynamics from 1984 to present derived using laser and radar altimetry and optical remote sensing //Earth System Science Data Discussions. – 2022. – Т. 2022. – P. 1-20.
11. Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Yongpeng Gao, Fuming Xie, Georg Veh, Letian Xiao, Jinlong Jing, Yu Zhu, Kunpeng Wu. A mathematical model to improve water storage of glacial lakes prediction towards addressing glacial lake outburst floods //Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. – 2024. – Т. 2024. – P. 1-28.
12. Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Kunpeng Wu, Yu Zhu, Fuming Xie, Huian Jin, Yongpeng Gao, Xiaojun Yao. Improving the accuracy of glacial lake volume estimation: A case study in the Poiqu basin, central Himalayas //Journal of Hydrology. – 2022. – Т. 610. – P. 127973.
13. R. Muñoz, Ch. Huggel, H. Frey, A. Cochachin, W. Haeberli. Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru //Earth surface processes and landforms. – 2020. – Т. 45. – №. 7. – P. 1510-1527.
14. V. Kapitsa, M. Shahgedanova, N. Kasatkin , I. Severskiy, M. Kasenov, A. Yegorov and M. Tatkova. Bathymetries of proglacial lakes: a new data set from the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan //Frontiers in Earth Science. – 2023. – Т. 11. – P. 1192719.
15. Sarwar M., Mahmood S. Exploring potential glacial lakes using geo-spatial techniques in Eastern Hindu Kush Region, Pakistan //Natural Hazards Research. – 2024. – Т. 4. – №. 1. – P. 56-61.
16. Zhang S., Nie Y., Zhang H. Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor //Remote Sensing. – 2024. – Т. 16. – №. 4. – P. 725.
17. Suresh Das, Soumik Das, Sandip Tanu Mandal, Milap C Sharma. Inventory and GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Chenab basin, Western Himalaya //Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk. – 2024. – Т. 15. – №. 1. – P. 2356216.
18. Abid Farooq Rather, Rayees Ahmed, Changhyun Jun, Sayed M. Bateni, Pervez Ahmed, Riyaz Ahmad Mir. Understanding glacial lake evolution and the associated GLOF hazard in the Shyok catchment of the Upper Indus Basin using geospatial techniques //Natural Hazards Review. – 2024. – Т. 25. – №. 3. – P. 04024014.
19. Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Paul A. Carling, Peng Cui, Hao Wang, Zhang Guotao, Liu Dingzhu, Javed Hassan. Predicting the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in Karakorum //EGUsphere. – 2024. – Т. 2024. – P. 1-22.

Citation Links

[1]2025. METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Izdenister natigeler. 2 (106) (Jun. 2025), 469–480. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37884/2-2025/47.

(1)METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Izdenister natigeler 2025, No. 2 (106), 469-480. https://doi.org/10.37884/2-2025/47.

METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. (2025). Izdenister Natigeler, 2 (106), 469-480. https://doi.org/10.37884/2-2025/47

METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Izdenister natigeler, [S. l.], n. 2 (106), p. 469–480, 2025. DOI: 10.37884/2-2025/47. Disponível em: https://natsus.kaznaru.edu.kz/index.php/research/article/view/930. Acesso em: 15 sep. 2026.

“METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE”. 2025. Izdenister Natigeler, no. 2 (106) (June): 469-80. https://doi.org/10.37884/2-2025/47.

“METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE” (2025) Izdenister natigeler, (2 (106), pp. 469–480. doi:10.37884/2-2025/47.

[1]“METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE”, Izdenister natigeler, no. 2 (106), pp. 469–480, Jun. 2025, doi: 10.37884/2-2025/47.

“METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE”. Izdenister Natigeler, no. 2 (106), June 2025, pp. 469-80, https://doi.org/10.37884/2-2025/47.

“METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE”. Izdenister natigeler, no. 2 (106) (June 30, 2025): 469–480. Accessed September 15, 2026. https://natsus.kaznaru.edu.kz/index.php/research/article/view/930.

1.METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Izdenister natigeler [Internet]. 2025 Jun. 30 [cited 2026 Sep. 15];(2 (106):469-80. Available from: https://natsus.kaznaru.edu.kz/index.php/research/article/view/930

1.METHODS OF MONITORING MORAINE LAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Izdenister natigeler. 2025;(2 (106):469-480. doi:10.37884/2-2025/47

[1] 1. Medeu, A. R., Popov, N. V., Blagovechshenskiy, V. P., Askarova, M. A., Medeu, A. A., Ranova, S. U., Kamalbekova A., Bolch, T. Moraine-dammed glacial lakes and threat of glacial debris flows in South-East Kazakhstan //Earth-Science Reviews. – 2022. – Т. 229. – P. 103999.

[2] 2. Gantayat P., Sattar, A., Haritashya, U. K., Watson, C. S., & Kargel, J. S. (2024). Bayesian Approach to Estimate Proglacial Lake Volume (BE‐GLAV) //Earth and Space Science. – 2024. – Т. 11. – №. 6. – С. e2024EA003542.

[3] 3. Kaiheng Hu, Xiaopeng Zhang, Manish Raj Gouli, Shuang Liu, Yong Nie. Retrospective analysis and hazard assessment of Gega glacial lake in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis //Natural Hazards Research. – 2022. – Т. 2. – №. 4. – P. 331-342.

[4] 4. Wang X, Xiaoyu Guo, Chengde Yang, Qionghuan Liu, Junfeng Wei, Yong Zhang, Shi-yin Liu, Yanlin Zhang, Zong-li Jiang, Zhiguang Tang. Glacial lake inventory of high-mountain Asia in 1990 and 2018 derived from Landsat images //Earth System Science Data. – 2020. – Т. 12. – №. 3. – P. 2169-2182.

[5] 5. Dildabekova S. N., Isanova G. T., Raimbekova Z. T., Musina A. K., Kasenov M. K. Inventory of Glacier-Moraine Lakes in the Shilik River Basin and Analysis of Their Spatial Distribution //Journal of Geography & Environmental Management. – 2022. – Т. 65. – №. 2.

[6] 6. Lee Y. K., Hong S. H., Kim S. W. Monitoring of water level change in a dam from high-resolution sar data //Remote Sensing. – 2021. – Т. 13. – №. 18. – P. 3641

[7] 7. Akhilesh S. Nair, Nitish Kumar, J. Indu, B. Vivek. Monitoring lake levels from space: preliminary analysis with SWOT //Frontiers in Water. – 2021. – Т. 3. – P. 717852.

[8] 8. Shugar D., Burr A., Haritashya U.K., Kargel J., Watson C.S., Kennedy M.C., Bevington A.R., Betts R.A., Harrison S., Strattman K. Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990 //Nature climate change. – 2020. – Т. 10. – №. 10. – P. 939-945.

[9] 9. Amin М., Bano D., Hassan Sh., Goheer М., Khan А., Khan М., Hina S. Mapping and monitoring of glacier lake outburst floods using geospatial modelling approach for Darkut valley, Pakistan //Meteorological Applications. – 2020. – Т. 27. – №. 1. – P. e1877.

[10] 10. Jiawei Hou, Albert I.J.M. Van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo, Pablo R. Larraondo. GloLakes: a database of global lake water storage dynamics from 1984 to present derived using laser and radar altimetry and optical remote sensing //Earth System Science Data Discussions. – 2022. – Т. 2022. – P. 1-20.

[11] 11. Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Yongpeng Gao, Fuming Xie, Georg Veh, Letian Xiao, Jinlong Jing, Yu Zhu, Kunpeng Wu. A mathematical model to improve water storage of glacial lakes prediction towards addressing glacial lake outburst floods //Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. – 2024. – Т. 2024. – P. 1-28.

[12] 12. Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Kunpeng Wu, Yu Zhu, Fuming Xie, Huian Jin, Yongpeng Gao, Xiaojun Yao. Improving the accuracy of glacial lake volume estimation: A case study in the Poiqu basin, central Himalayas //Journal of Hydrology. – 2022. – Т. 610. – P. 127973.

[13] 13. R. Muñoz, Ch. Huggel, H. Frey, A. Cochachin, W. Haeberli. Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru //Earth surface processes and landforms. – 2020. – Т. 45. – №. 7. – P. 1510-1527.

[14] 14. V. Kapitsa, M. Shahgedanova, N. Kasatkin , I. Severskiy, M. Kasenov, A. Yegorov and M. Tatkova. Bathymetries of proglacial lakes: a new data set from the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan //Frontiers in Earth Science. – 2023. – Т. 11. – P. 1192719.

[15] 15. Sarwar M., Mahmood S. Exploring potential glacial lakes using geo-spatial techniques in Eastern Hindu Kush Region, Pakistan //Natural Hazards Research. – 2024. – Т. 4. – №. 1. – P. 56-61.

[16] 16. Zhang S., Nie Y., Zhang H. Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor //Remote Sensing. – 2024. – Т. 16. – №. 4. – P. 725.

[17] 17. Suresh Das, Soumik Das, Sandip Tanu Mandal, Milap C Sharma. Inventory and GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Chenab basin, Western Himalaya //Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk. – 2024. – Т. 15. – №. 1. – P. 2356216.

[18] 18. Abid Farooq Rather, Rayees Ahmed, Changhyun Jun, Sayed M. Bateni, Pervez Ahmed, Riyaz Ahmad Mir. Understanding glacial lake evolution and the associated GLOF hazard in the Shyok catchment of the Upper Indus Basin using geospatial techniques //Natural Hazards Review. – 2024. – Т. 25. – №. 3. – P. 04024014.

[19] 19. Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Paul A. Carling, Peng Cui, Hao Wang, Zhang Guotao, Liu Dingzhu, Javed Hassan. Predicting the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in Karakorum //EGUsphere. – 2024. – Т. 2024. – P. 1-22.